Who Can Win the 2024 CrossFit Open?

It’s the last week of the CrossFit Open, and there are close races at the top of both the men’s and women’s leaderboards. Who’s got the best chance of winning the whole thing?

Let’s break down the divisions and analyze the field.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjSLkhA0QMw

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Women’s Division

With two events behind us, Grace Walton currently leads with just 11 points; meanwhile, seven other women are all within 50 points of that top spot.

1. Grace Walton (11 points)
2. Christee Bishop (23 points)
3. Christina Agerbeck (24 points)
4. Arielle Loewen (25 points)
5. Mirjam Von Rohr (38 points)
6. Aimee Cringle (42 points)
7. Seher Kaya (48 points)
8. Katelin Van Zyl (56 points)

All the women in the top eight currently have finished in the top 50 in both 24.1 and 24.2, so it is unlikely that an athlete outside this top eight will beat this collective group by more than 50 points. 

Additionally, the women’s winner of the CrossFit Open has averaged a score of 48 points over the last three years, which also limits the likelihood of an athlete coming from deeper in the standings to win in the last week.

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The Favorites

Workout 24.3 brings back CrossFit Open staples of thrusters with chest-to-bar pull-ups and bar muscle-ups. Here’s who’s primed to win it all.

• Arielle Loewen: The Third Fittest Woman on Earth currently sits in fourth place overall. Looking back to last year’s Open, Loewen is the only woman in the group to finish in the top 50 in 22.3, which was the last time we saw these three movements together. 

• Grace Walton: The overall leader after two weeks is a rising star in the sport. She rapidly climbed the leaderboards from 15th at the Torian Pro in 2022 to sixth in 2023. Before the 2024 Open, her best finish in an Open event was 67th (23.3), so the two top-10 finishes in the 2024 Open highlight her steady improvement. 

• Katelin Van Zyl: The three-time CrossFit Games athlete is no stranger to the top of the Open leaderboard, with three top-25 CrossFit Open finishes since 2020. Van Zyl, who missed the CrossFit Games in 2023 by one spot after finishing fourth at the Torian Pro, finished in the top 20 in last year’s Open event with muscle-ups (23.1) and 54th in 22.3, which should allow her to climb the leaderboard this week. 

But what about Tia-Clair Toomey? In a typical year, Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr would be on the favorites list, especially given that she currently sits in 11th place. However, an injury forced her to step back from the Open announcement and could impact her approach to the final workout. 

Men’s Division

The top of the men’s leaderboard is incredibly close, with the top eight athletes separated by only 28 points. Of the top eight, seven have been to the CrossFit Games, and two are past CrossFit Open champions (Saxon Panchik 2022, Patrick Vellner 2020).

1. Alexandre Caron (21 points)
2. Dallin Pepper (22 points)
3. Cale Layman (28 points)
4. Jonne Koski (29 points)
5. Saxon Panchik (31 points)
6. Jay Crouch (39 points)
7. Patrick Vellner (41 points)
8. Ricky Garard (49 points)

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The Favorites

Narrowing down this list of athletes is a challenge, as you could make a case for any of the seven Games athletes taking the top spot, and it would be difficult to argue.

• Dallin Pepper: In 2023, Dallin Pepper continued his upward trajectory, claiming fifth place at the CrossFit Games. Pepper, along with Colten Mertens, are the only men with back-to-back top 10 finishes in the CrossFit Open.

• Saxon Panchik: The 2022 CrossFit Open winner and fourth-place finisher in the 2021 CrossFit Open returns to competition after a foot injury derailed his 2023 season at Semifinals. Saxon Panchik earned a ninth-place finish when we saw these three movements together in 22.3 on the way to his Open title. 

• Patrick Vellner: The second Fittest Man on Earth and 2023 Rogue Invitational champion is back for more in 2024. Vellner won the Open in 2020 and also finished in the top 10 overall in the 2018 and 2016 Opens. He took fourth in 21.3, which also combined these three movements, and 20th back in 19.5, which involved a long couplet of thrusters and chest-to-bars.

• Jonne Koski & Jay Crouch: Out of the top eight athletes, Koski and Crouch are the only ones to have a top-25 finish in both 22.3 and 21.3.

But what about Alexandre Caron? It does feel wrong not to have the overall leader as a favorite going into the final week. Caron, however, was medically withdrawn from Semifinals, and withdrew from Wodapalooza this year due to an injury that limits his ability to do dips. With his status and the final workout still uncertain, it’s difficult to lock him into a top finish this week.

The Bottom Line

With the top five places in the CrossFit Open receiving prize money, including $15,000 for first place, these athletes will be giving it their all in the final week. With so much on the line, there will be plenty of leaderboard watching, and chances are we won’t see the final scores from all the contenders until sometime on Monday afternoon.

Featured image: @dallinpepper / Instagram

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