Trying to Predict Workout 24.3? Look Back at CrossFit Open Programming History
With one week left in the 2024 CrossFit Open, the possibilities of what the final workout(s) could look like start narrowing.
- The safe money is expecting thrusters. They have been programmed in every CrossFit Open.
Could we predict Open Workout 24.3 by looking back at past thruster workouts programmed by CrossFit and from other major competitions?
With snatches, burpees, deadlifts, rowing, and double-unders already in the rearview in 2024, what other workouts could Dave Castro drop in week three?
Open Repeats: A repeat workout is nearly as common as thrusters, with 2022 being the only year after the inaugural CrossFit Open that there wasn’t a repeat workout.
- 21.3 — The front runner for a repeat is 21.3; a 15-minute chipper with front squats, thrusters, toes-to-bar, chest-to-bar pull-ups, and bar muscle-ups.
- So far in 2024, there hasn’t been any gymnastics pulling, which 21.3 solves with toes-to-bar, chest-to-bar pull-ups, and bar muscle-ups.
- It follows programming trends for the Open, where at least one muscle-up variation (bar or ring) has been programmed every year.
- Toes-to-bar have been in all Opens except one.
- Chest-to-bar pull-ups have only missed two Opens.
A repeat of 21.3 rounds out the number of movements in the 2024 Open. In the three-week Open era, there have been between 10-12 movements programmed each year. If 21.3 is a repeat, it would bring 2024 to 10 movements.
- Finally, 2021 was the first post-COVID Open, and a repeat from 2021 would highlight how far the CrossFit community has come since gyms were closed around the world for extended periods.
The remainder of repeat options from past CrossFit Opens all fall into classic thrusters and chest-to-bar couplets. The options are 19.5, 18.5/12.5/11.6, and 13.5.
- 19.5 is 20 minutes. With a 15-minute and a 20-minute workout already done in the 2024 Open, it seems unlikely to include another 20-minute time cap workout.
- 18.5/12.5/11.6 is the only workout that has been repeated three times. It would be a surprise to see it repeated a fourth time.
- 13.5 is the most likely to be repeated out of this group. It “rewards” athletes with more time and more work if they complete three rounds of 15 chest-to-bars and 15 thrusters every four minutes. This programming structure creates the separation between the best in the world and everyday CrossFitters.
The downside to one of these couplets is leaving the 2024 CrossFit Open with only seven movements. However, since the 25 percent of athletes worldwide from the Open are eligible to compete in the 2024 Quarterfinals, this might not be the deterrent it was in past years.
Games and Semifinals: Looking at past thruster events deeper into the season, many events pair thrusters with rope climbs or an Echo bike. This makes them unlikely to be in the Open.
There are still a few interesting options for global community:
- Friendly Fran was first programmed at the 2020 CrossFit Games and the online Semifinals in 2021. It is three rounds of 21 thrusters and 21 chest-to-bars at 115-/85- pounds for time.
- Since it’s been 3.5 years since Friendly Fran debuted, perhaps it’s a good choice for the general CrossFit population to do a former CrossFit Games event. The competition records for Friendly Fran are held by Tia-Clair Toomey-Orr (3:40) and Mat Fraser (3:08).
- Event Four from the 2021 CrossFit Games, won by Mallory O’Brien (13:41.22) and Scott Panchik (13:39.61), was 10-to-1 reps of wall walks and thrusters. The original weight of 185/125 pounds would need to drop for the general population but would bring a new twist to the thruster couplets in the Open.
- The 2022 Last Chance Qualifier (LCQ) Event One could offer a fresh take on thruster events. Event One of the 2022 LCQ tasked athletes to complete 20 thrusters, then max bar muscle-ups in a two-minute window, rest for two minutes, then perform the opposite: 20 bar muscle-ups and max-rep thrusters.
- This event in its current form is probably too advanced for the masses, though scaling could create an interesting finale for the 2024 Open. As an added wrinkle, Arielle Loewen won this event and will compete in the 24.3 Open announcement.
The limitation for all three of these events is they are couplets in an Open short on movements. Event Four has the extra strike of preventing any pull-ups in the 2024 Open programming.
From the Sanctional Era: The 2020 Norwegian CrossFit Championship and has a similar structure to 21.3.
- Athletes complete two rounds of 21 thrusters and pull-ups, followed by two rounds of 15 thrusters and chest-to-bar pull-ups, and conclude with two rounds of nine thrusters and bar muscle-ups.
This event increases in difficulty as athletes progress, which would help differentiate athletes ahead of the Quarterfinals. It brings a nice array of gymnastics movements that have been absent from the 2024 Open.
The bottom line: Fortunately for all of us in the Open, we only have to wait until Thursday at noon PT before the final workout (or two) of the 2024 Open is upon us.
Featured image: @s__auvage / Instagram
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